Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Fakty TVN and TVN24, 13–14 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.3% 28.4–32.2% 27.9–32.8% 27.4–33.3% 26.5–34.2%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.6% 26.7–30.5% 26.2–31.0% 25.8–31.5% 24.9–32.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5% 7.2–10.8% 6.7–11.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.6–8.3% 5.3–8.6% 4.9–9.2%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.4% 4.0–8.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.4–6.9% 4.2–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.2%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.9%  
16 26% 98.5%  
17 36% 72% Median
18 20% 36%  
19 15% 16%  
20 1.3% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 7% 98%  
17 42% 91% Median
18 39% 50%  
19 4% 10%  
20 6% 7%  
21 1.0% 1.0%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 15% 99.9%  
5 71% 85% Median
6 13% 15%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0.1% 99.4%  
3 19% 99.2%  
4 79% 80% Median
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 63% 99.5% Median
4 33% 37%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 0% 82%  
2 0.1% 82%  
3 68% 82% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 6% 83%  
3 61% 77% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 77% 78% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0% 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 15% 99.9%  
5 71% 85% Median
6 13% 15%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 63% 99.5% Median
4 33% 37%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 6% 83%  
3 61% 77% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations