Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 24–25 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.2% 27.5–31.1% 26.9–31.7% 26.5–32.1% 25.7–33.0%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.6% 26.4–32.0% 25.6–32.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 100%  
17 25% 99.3%  
18 42% 74% Median
19 24% 32%  
20 7% 8%  
21 0.1% 0.7%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.4% 100%  
16 13% 98.5%  
17 50% 86% Median
18 26% 36%  
19 9% 10%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 83% 98% Median
6 14% 15%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0.2% 99.3%  
3 15% 99.2%  
4 81% 84% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 55% 100% Median
4 37% 45%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 1.3% 93%  
3 80% 92% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0.8% 20%  
3 19% 20%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0.4% 38%  
3 37% 37%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 39% 40%  
2 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 83% 98% Median
6 14% 15%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 55% 100% Median
4 37% 45%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0.4% 38%  
3 37% 37%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations