Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 24–26 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.0% 28.1–32.0% 27.6–32.5% 27.1–33.0% 26.2–34.0%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.6% 26.7–30.5% 26.2–31.1% 25.8–31.6% 24.9–32.5%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.3% 5.4–9.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.3% 5.4–9.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.6–8.4% 5.4–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.5–7.3%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 15% 99.1%  
18 13% 84%  
19 49% 70% Median
20 17% 21%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 26% 98%  
16 28% 72% Median
17 33% 44%  
18 7% 12%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 16% 99.9%  
4 50% 84% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 10% 99.9%  
4 49% 90% Median
5 33% 41%  
6 8% 8%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 34% 99.4%  
4 50% 66% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 26% 100%  
3 57% 74% Median
4 17% 17%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 0% 63%  
2 12% 63%  
3 47% 51% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0.1% 1.2%  
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 72% 73% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 10% 99.9%  
4 49% 90% Median
5 33% 41%  
6 8% 8%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 26% 100%  
3 57% 74% Median
4 17% 17%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0.1% 1.2%  
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations