Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Onet, 14–15 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 29.9% | 28.2–31.8% | 27.6–32.3% | 27.2–32.8% | 26.4–33.7% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.9% | 27.1–30.7% | 26.6–31.2% | 26.2–31.7% | 25.4–32.6% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.5–10.9% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–9.9% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.5–9.6% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.6% | 5.0–7.9% | 4.6–8.4% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 18 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 17 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 53% | 92% | Median |
| 19 | 4% | 39% | |
| 20 | 33% | 35% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 15 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 19% | 93% | |
| 17 | 54% | 74% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 20% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 82% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 5% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 18% | 100% | |
| 4 | 30% | 82% | |
| 5 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 70% | 73% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 97% | |
| 4 | 65% | 70% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 36% | 36% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 82% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 5% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 97% | |
| 4 | 65% | 70% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IBRiS
- Commissioner(s): Onet
- Fieldwork period: 14–15 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1053
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.35%