Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wPolsce24, 1–30 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 18–22 18–22 17–22 17–23
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 19–21 18–22 18–22 17–22
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 2–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 3% 99.9%  
18 11% 97%  
19 35% 86%  
20 24% 51% Median
21 3% 27%  
22 22% 24%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 5% 98%  
19 47% 93% Median
20 18% 46%  
21 20% 29%  
22 8% 9%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 49% 96% Median
5 45% 47%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 58% 84% Median
4 22% 26%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 45% 46%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0.1% 7%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 1.1% 94%  
2 66% 93% Median
3 24% 26%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 26% 94%  
2 66% 68% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 67% 67% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 0% 2–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 45% 46%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 1.1% 94%  
2 66% 93% Median
3 24% 26%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 26% 94%  
2 66% 68% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations