Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Polsat News, 4–6 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.8% 27.9–31.8% 27.4–32.3% 27.0–32.8% 26.1–33.8%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 27.0% 25.2–29.0% 24.7–29.5% 24.3–30.0% 23.5–30.9%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.9% 100%  
17 6% 99.1%  
18 25% 93%  
19 46% 68% Median
20 15% 22%  
21 7% 7%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 2% 100%  
14 13% 98%  
15 17% 85%  
16 34% 68% Median
17 33% 34%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 59% 99.5% Median
5 26% 40%  
6 14% 15%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 43% 98.9%  
5 35% 56% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 1.5% 1.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 9% 99.7%  
4 64% 90% Median
5 25% 26%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 52% 99.0% Median
4 42% 47%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0.1% 15%  
3 14% 14%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0.1% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 69% 69% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 43% 98.9%  
5 35% 56% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 1.5% 1.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 52% 99.0% Median
4 42% 47%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0.1% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations