Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 6–7 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.4% 29.6–33.4% 29.1–33.9% 28.7–34.4% 27.8–35.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.9% 29.0–32.8% 28.5–33.3% 28.1–33.8% 27.2–34.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–8.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.2% 5.4–7.3% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 18–21 18–21 18–22 18–23
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 12% 99.6%  
19 19% 87%  
20 49% 68% Median
21 15% 19%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.8%  
17 17% 98.6%  
18 25% 81%  
19 53% 56% Median
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 16% 99.5%  
4 77% 83% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 58% 99.2% Median
4 40% 41%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 38% 99.6%  
4 58% 62% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0.9% 17%  
3 16% 16%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 54% 99.8% Median
3 35% 45%  
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 80% 80% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 38% 99.6%  
4 58% 62% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 54% 99.8% Median
3 35% 45%  
4 10% 10%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0.9% 17%  
3 16% 16%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations