Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Gazeta Wyborcza, 4–7 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.6% 29.7–33.6% 29.2–34.2% 28.7–34.6% 27.8–35.6%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 26.0% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.4% 23.3–28.9% 22.5–29.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 10.1% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–10.0% 6.0–10.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.2–8.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 21 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–24
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 15 15–16 14–18 14–18 14–19
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 5 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.9% 100%  
19 11% 99.0%  
20 32% 88%  
21 14% 56% Median
22 40% 42%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 6% 99.5%  
15 59% 94% Median
16 26% 35%  
17 3% 9%  
18 5% 6%  
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 66% 99.3% Median
6 21% 33%  
7 11% 12%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.0% 100%  
4 8% 99.0%  
5 81% 91% Median
6 10% 11%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.5% 100%  
3 56% 98.5% Median
4 40% 42%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 70% 72% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 55% 55% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.0% 100%  
4 8% 99.0%  
5 81% 91% Median
6 10% 11%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.5% 100%  
3 56% 98.5% Median
4 40% 42%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations