Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Fakty TVN and TVN24, 1–31 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.4% 30.5–34.5% 29.9–35.0% 29.5–35.5% 28.6–36.5%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 27.6% 25.8–29.6% 25.3–30.1% 24.8–30.6% 24.0–31.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 9.4% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.6–11.4% 7.1–12.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.5–8.3% 5.3–8.6% 4.9–9.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.3–7.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 21 19–23 19–23 19–23 18–24
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.8%  
19 12% 99.1%  
20 26% 87%  
21 33% 61% Median
22 18% 28%  
23 9% 10%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 16% 97%  
16 23% 81%  
17 31% 58% Median
18 24% 27%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 41% 91% Median
6 43% 50%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 30% 99.9%  
4 47% 70% Median
5 19% 23%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 0% 65%  
2 0% 65%  
3 52% 65% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 23% 99.8%  
3 68% 77% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0.1% 7%  
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 73% 74% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 30% 99.9%  
4 47% 70% Median
5 19% 23%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 23% 99.8%  
3 68% 77% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0.1% 7%  
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations