Opinion Poll by OGB, 9–14 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.4% 29.5–33.3% 29.0–33.8% 28.6–34.3% 27.7–35.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 27.8% 26.0–29.6% 25.5–30.2% 25.1–30.6% 24.2–31.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–18
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–7
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.2% 100%  
18 13% 98.8%  
19 19% 86%  
20 43% 67% Median
21 20% 23%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 1.1% 100%  
15 11% 98.8%  
16 48% 87% Median
17 26% 39%  
18 12% 13%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 33% 99.9%  
5 60% 67% Median
6 6% 7%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 22% 99.2%  
5 56% 78% Median
6 21% 22%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 56% 93% Median
4 33% 37%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 67% 90% Median
4 23% 24%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 75% 75% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 22% 99.2%  
5 56% 78% Median
6 21% 22%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 56% 93% Median
4 33% 37%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations