Opinion Poll by OGB, 9–14 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.1% | 31.2–35.0% | 30.7–35.6% | 30.2–36.0% | 29.3–37.0% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 26.0–29.6% | 25.5–30.2% | 25.1–30.6% | 24.2–31.6% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.3–10.8% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 18% | 98% | |
| 20 | 37% | 80% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 44% | |
| 22 | 22% | 23% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 16% | 99.2% | |
| 16 | 44% | 83% | Median |
| 17 | 27% | 39% | |
| 18 | 9% | 12% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 37% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 38% | 38% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 31% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 60% | 68% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 67% | 99.1% | Median |
| 4 | 28% | 32% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 71% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 21% | 21% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 31% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 60% | 68% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 67% | 99.1% | Median |
| 4 | 28% | 32% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGB
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–14 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.09%