Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wPolsce24, 6–17 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.1% 28.3–31.9% 27.8–32.4% 27.4–32.8% 26.6–33.7%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.0% 26.3–29.8% 25.8–30.3% 25.4–30.7% 24.6–31.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.4–11.9% 7.9–12.6%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.5–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.0% 4.7–8.5%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.2–6.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 17–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–19
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 33% 98%  
19 37% 64% Median
20 25% 27%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 13% 99.4%  
16 49% 87% Median
17 29% 38%  
18 8% 8%  
19 0.8% 0.8%  
20 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 31% 98.7%  
6 57% 68% Median
7 11% 11%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 49% 87% Median
6 39% 39%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 29% 99.9%  
4 68% 71% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 59% 98.8% Median
3 37% 40%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 54% 55% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–4 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 29% 99.9%  
4 68% 71% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 59% 98.8% Median
3 37% 40%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations