Opinion Poll by Ipsos for TVP Info, 19–20 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.7% 26.8–30.7% 26.3–31.2% 25.9–31.7% 25.0–32.7%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.3% 26.4–30.2% 25.9–30.8% 25.4–31.3% 24.6–32.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5% 7.1–10.8% 6.6–11.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.8–7.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–19 16–19 15–20
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–17 15–18 14–19 14–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 3% 98%  
17 27% 95%  
18 54% 69% Median
19 13% 14%  
20 1.3% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 5% 100%  
15 20% 95%  
16 26% 75% Median
17 41% 48%  
18 2% 7%  
19 5% 5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9%  
5 63% 83% Median
6 20% 20%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 99.9%  
4 63% 96% Median
5 32% 32%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 2% 98%  
3 41% 95%  
4 52% 54% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 55% 97% Median
4 38% 42%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 0% 70%  
2 10% 70%  
3 56% 60% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 63% 64% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0% 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9%  
5 63% 83% Median
6 20% 20%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 55% 97% Median
4 38% 42%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 0% 70%  
2 10% 70%  
3 56% 60% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations