Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 20–21 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.3% 28.4–32.3% 27.9–32.9% 27.4–33.4% 26.6–34.4%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 23.4% 21.6–25.2% 21.2–25.8% 20.7–26.2% 19.9–27.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 10.9% 9.6–12.3% 9.3–12.7% 9.0–13.1% 8.5–13.8%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.9% 6.6–10.2% 6.2–10.9%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.1–10.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.8–7.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.8–4.0% 1.6–4.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.8–3.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 14 13–14 13–15 12–15 12–15
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 2% 100%  
17 23% 98%  
18 26% 75% Median
19 9% 50%  
20 39% 40%  
21 1.0% 1.1%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 4% 99.8%  
13 40% 96%  
14 48% 56% Median
15 7% 8%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 14% 99.9%  
6 74% 86% Median
7 10% 13%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 60% 99.7% Median
5 38% 39%  
6 1.4% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 43% 98%  
5 54% 55% Median
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 27% 97%  
4 69% 70% Median
5 1.0% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0.5% 51%  
3 48% 51% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 53% 53% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 60% 99.7% Median
5 38% 39%  
6 1.4% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 27% 97%  
4 69% 70% Median
5 1.0% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations