Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 20–21 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.1% | 30.1–34.1% | 29.6–34.7% | 29.1–35.2% | 28.2–36.1% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 23.4% | 21.6–25.2% | 21.2–25.8% | 20.7–26.2% | 19.9–27.1% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.6–12.3% | 9.3–12.7% | 9.0–13.1% | 8.5–13.8% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.2–9.5% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.6–10.2% | 6.2–10.9% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.1–9.4% | 6.8–9.8% | 6.6–10.1% | 6.1–10.7% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.3–8.4% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.8–7.7% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.8–4.0% | 1.6–4.4% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 15% | 98% | |
| 19 | 24% | 83% | |
| 20 | 31% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 26% | 28% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 12 | 11% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 47% | 88% | Median |
| 14 | 37% | 42% | |
| 15 | 5% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 41% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 45% | 59% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 64% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 27% | 35% | |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 59% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 37% | 38% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 44% | 98% | |
| 4 | 52% | 54% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 66% | |
| 2 | 12% | 66% | |
| 3 | 51% | 54% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 64% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 27% | 35% | |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 44% | 98% | |
| 4 | 52% | 54% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: United Surveys
- Commissioner(s): WP.pl
- Fieldwork period: 20–21 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 920
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.22%