Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 2–4 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4–35.4% | 30.8–35.9% | 30.4–36.4% | 29.5–37.4% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.4–26.0% | 21.0–26.4% | 20.2–27.3% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.3–11.0% | 6.8–11.7% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.4–9.3% | 6.2–9.6% | 5.7–10.2% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 5.1–8.3% | 4.7–8.9% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 5.1–8.3% | 4.7–8.9% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.2–5.9% | 2.9–6.4% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.0–5.0% |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 11% | 98% | |
| 20 | 15% | 87% | |
| 21 | 49% | 72% | Median |
| 22 | 12% | 23% | |
| 23 | 7% | 11% | |
| 24 | 4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 32% | 93% | |
| 14 | 23% | 61% | Median |
| 15 | 36% | 38% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 55% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 37% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 72% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 40% | 94% | |
| 4 | 43% | 54% | Median |
| 5 | 11% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 38% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 38% | 62% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 55% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 37% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 38% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 38% | 62% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 3 | 18% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinia24
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–4 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 933
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.98%