Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Fakty TVN and TVN24, 11–12 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 35.7% 33.7–37.7% 33.1–38.3% 32.6–38.8% 31.7–39.8%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 25.7% 23.9–27.6% 23.4–28.1% 23.0–28.6% 22.1–29.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 5.9–8.7% 5.7–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.4–6.9% 4.2–7.1% 3.8–7.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.3% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.9% 3.6–7.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 22 21–24 21–24 20–25 20–25
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 15 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 3% 99.7%  
21 15% 97%  
22 40% 82% Median
23 26% 42%  
24 13% 16%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1% Majority
28 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 4% 99.7%  
14 16% 95%  
15 34% 79% Median
16 34% 45%  
17 10% 12%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 16% 100%  
4 47% 84% Median
5 35% 37%  
6 1.1% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 15% 100%  
4 54% 85% Median
5 27% 31%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 0% 81%  
2 0.3% 81%  
3 64% 81% Median
4 17% 17%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 21% 100%  
3 67% 79% Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0.3% 42%  
3 41% 42%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 15% 100%  
4 54% 85% Median
5 27% 31%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 21% 100%  
3 67% 79% Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0.3% 42%  
3 41% 42%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations