Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Polsat News, 13–15 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.1–34.0% 29.6–34.6% 29.1–35.1% 28.2–36.1%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 26.6% 24.8–28.5% 24.2–29.0% 23.8–29.5% 23.0–30.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.5% 7.1–10.8% 6.7–11.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.4% 7.3–9.7% 7.0–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.3–11.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.6% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–21 18–21 18–21 17–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 13–18
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 11% 98%  
19 37% 87% Median
20 33% 50%  
21 15% 16%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 2% 100%  
14 9% 98%  
15 52% 89% Median
16 31% 37%  
17 5% 6%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 44% 99.2%  
5 46% 56% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 42% 94%  
5 46% 52% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 1.0% 98%  
3 55% 97% Median
4 41% 43%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 32% 95%  
4 62% 63% Median
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 0% 69%  
2 7% 69%  
3 59% 61% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0.1% 0.5%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 42% 94%  
5 46% 52% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 32% 95%  
4 62% 63% Median
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0.1% 0.5%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations