Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 2–3 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 34.3% 32.4–36.3% 31.9–36.8% 31.5–37.3% 30.6–38.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.1–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 21 20–22 20–23 19–23 19–24
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–19
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 15% 97%  
21 34% 83% Median
22 40% 48%  
23 6% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 11% 98%  
16 23% 87%  
17 53% 64% Median
18 8% 11%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 19% 99.9%  
4 59% 81% Median
5 21% 22%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 68% 92% Median
5 22% 23%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0.1% 92%  
3 72% 92% Median
4 20% 20%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 80% 88% Median
4 8% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0.1% 24%  
3 23% 24%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0.1% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 68% 92% Median
5 22% 23%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 80% 88% Median
4 8% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 24%  
2 0.1% 24%  
3 23% 24%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations