Opinion Poll by OGB, 25 March–4 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 36.5% | 34.5–38.5% | 34.0–39.0% | 33.5–39.5% | 32.6–40.5% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 29.8% | 28.0–31.7% | 27.5–32.2% | 27.0–32.7% | 26.2–33.6% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 15% | 93% | |
| 22 | 55% | 79% | Median |
| 23 | 12% | 24% | |
| 24 | 10% | 12% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 22% | 95% | |
| 17 | 37% | 73% | Median |
| 18 | 29% | 36% | |
| 19 | 7% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 34% | 98% | |
| 6 | 50% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 98.9% | Median |
| 4 | 38% | 48% | |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 63% | |
| 2 | 3% | 63% | |
| 3 | 59% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 99.3% | Median |
| 3 | 38% | 41% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 98.9% | Median |
| 4 | 38% | 48% | |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 99.3% | Median |
| 3 | 38% | 41% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGB
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25 March–4 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.62%