Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for RMF FM, 7–9 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 36.1% | 34.1–38.1% | 33.5–38.7% | 33.0–39.2% | 32.1–40.2% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 23.5% | 21.8–25.4% | 21.3–25.9% | 20.9–26.3% | 20.1–27.2% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.9% | 6.8–9.1% | 6.6–9.5% | 6.3–9.8% | 5.9–10.4% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 6.0–8.8% | 5.7–9.1% | 5.3–9.7% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.5–8.8% | 5.1–9.4% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.4% | 4.0–8.0% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.5% | 3.3–7.0% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 0–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 18% | 96% | |
| 22 | 31% | 77% | Median |
| 23 | 31% | 46% | |
| 24 | 14% | 15% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 12 | 32% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 28% | 67% | Median |
| 14 | 22% | 39% | |
| 15 | 15% | 17% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 92% | |
| 5 | 61% | 72% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 19% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 68% | 80% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 47% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 45% | 52% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 54% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 38% | 39% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 2% | 58% | |
| 3 | 55% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 92% | |
| 5 | 61% | 72% | Median |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 54% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 38% | 39% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 2% | 58% | |
| 3 | 55% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinia24
- Commissioner(s): RMF FM
- Fieldwork period: 7–9 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 940
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.06%