Opinion Poll by Social Changes for Interia, 17–20 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.7% | 29.9–33.5% | 29.4–34.0% | 29.0–34.5% | 28.1–35.4% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.3–29.8% | 25.8–30.3% | 25.4–30.7% | 24.6–31.6% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.0–11.4% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.2–9.2% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.1% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–19 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 23% | 98.6% | |
| 19 | 19% | 75% | |
| 20 | 40% | 57% | Median |
| 21 | 14% | 17% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 16% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 30% | 83% | |
| 17 | 46% | 53% | Median |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 67% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 20% | |
| 7 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 18% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 73% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 20% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 80% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 41% | |
| 3 | 40% | 41% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 100% | |
| 3 | 81% | 85% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 20% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 80% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 15% | 100% | |
| 3 | 81% | 85% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 41% | |
| 3 | 40% | 41% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): Interia
- Fieldwork period: 17–20 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1090
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.21%