Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rz, 24–25 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 33.1% 31.2–35.1% 30.7–35.7% 30.3–36.1% 29.4–37.1%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 25.1% 23.3–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 8.5% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.8–7.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 19–21 19–21 18–22 18–23
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 3% 99.8%  
19 43% 96%  
20 14% 53% Median
21 35% 40%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.4% 0.7%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 18% 97%  
14 49% 80% Median
15 16% 30%  
16 13% 14%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 6% 99.8%  
5 80% 93% Median
6 12% 14%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.2% 100%  
4 51% 98.8% Median
5 46% 48%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 68% 97% Median
5 29% 29%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 84% 91% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 44%  
2 7% 44%  
3 37% 37%  
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0.2% 25%  
3 24% 24%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 68% 97% Median
5 29% 29%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 84% 91% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0.2% 25%  
3 24% 24%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations