Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Gazeta Wyborcza, 27–30 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.9% 31.0–35.0% 30.5–35.5% 30.0–36.0% 29.1–37.0%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 23.4% 21.7–25.3% 21.2–25.8% 20.8–26.2% 20.0–27.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.6% 7.2–10.9% 6.7–11.6%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.0–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 21 20–22 20–23 19–23 19–24
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 14 13–16 13–16 12–16 12–17
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 100%  
19 3% 99.6%  
20 23% 96%  
21 43% 73% Median
22 25% 31%  
23 5% 5%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9%  
13 20% 97%  
14 30% 77% Median
15 36% 47%  
16 10% 10%  
17 0.8% 0.8%  
18 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 11% 99.8%  
5 67% 89% Median
6 22% 23%  
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 63% 95% Median
5 30% 32%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 26% 98.7%  
5 67% 73% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 68% 92% Median
4 22% 24%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 26% 98.7%  
5 67% 73% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 68% 92% Median
4 22% 24%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations