Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 4–6 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 35.1% | 33.1–37.1% | 32.5–37.7% | 32.1–38.2% | 31.1–39.2% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.8% | 25.0–28.7% | 24.4–29.2% | 24.0–29.7% | 23.2–30.6% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.3–9.7% | 7.0–10.1% | 6.8–10.4% | 6.3–11.0% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.5–8.8% | 6.2–9.1% | 6.0–9.4% | 5.6–10.1% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.2% | 5.4–9.8% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.7–7.6% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.0–5.0% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–24 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 15 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 13% | 98% | |
| 21 | 45% | 85% | Median |
| 22 | 29% | 40% | |
| 23 | 10% | 11% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 15 | 51% | 91% | Median |
| 16 | 22% | 40% | |
| 17 | 17% | 18% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 34% | 98% | |
| 5 | 60% | 64% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 65% | 88% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 35% | 36% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 19% | 100% | |
| 3 | 58% | 81% | Median |
| 4 | 23% | 23% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 35% | 36% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 19% | 100% | |
| 3 | 58% | 81% | Median |
| 4 | 23% | 23% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinia24
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–6 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 927
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.30%