Opinion Poll by OGB, 28 April–11 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 35.4% | 33.5–37.4% | 33.0–37.9% | 32.5–38.4% | 31.6–39.4% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 26.6% | 24.9–28.5% | 24.4–29.0% | 23.9–29.4% | 23.1–30.3% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.8–14.0% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–24 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 11% | 98% | |
| 21 | 28% | 87% | |
| 22 | 49% | 59% | Median |
| 23 | 8% | 10% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 29% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 39% | 70% | Median |
| 16 | 24% | 30% | |
| 17 | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 69% | 88% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 19% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 51% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 40% | 40% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 3 | 81% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 13% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 87% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 51% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 40% | 40% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 13% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 87% | Median |
| 4 | 14% | 14% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OGB
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 April–11 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.58%