Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 28–29 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.7% 29.9–33.6% 29.4–34.1% 29.0–34.6% 28.1–35.5%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.5–29.0% 24.1–29.4% 23.3–30.3%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.5% 5.9–10.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.1% 6.2–9.4% 5.8–10.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 4.0–7.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.8% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.3% 3.4–6.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.7–4.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 18–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–18
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.4% 100%  
18 12% 98.5%  
19 28% 87%  
20 34% 59% Median
21 14% 25%  
22 10% 11%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.7% 100%  
14 9% 99.2%  
15 25% 91%  
16 38% 65% Median
17 18% 27%  
18 9% 9%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 14% 100%  
4 58% 86% Median
5 25% 28%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 45% 97%  
5 42% 51% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 19% 99.8%  
4 67% 81% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 68% 83% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 37%  
2 0.7% 37%  
3 34% 36%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0.5% 16%  
3 15% 16%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 45% 97%  
5 42% 51% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 68% 83% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 37%  
2 0.7% 37%  
3 34% 36%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations