Opinion Poll by Social Changes for Interia, 5–9 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.7% 29.9–33.6% 29.4–34.1% 29.0–34.5% 28.1–35.4%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.0% 28.3–31.9% 27.8–32.4% 27.3–32.8% 26.5–33.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–21 17–21 17–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.9%  
18 13% 96%  
19 50% 83% Median
20 24% 32%  
21 8% 9%  
22 1.0% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 33% 98%  
17 36% 66% Median
18 20% 29%  
19 9% 10%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 67% 92% Median
5 24% 25%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 35% 99.8%  
4 48% 65% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 21% 99.9%  
4 61% 79% Median
5 17% 18%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 0% 72%  
2 5% 72%  
3 67% 67% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 40% 99.9%  
3 54% 60% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 21% 99.9%  
4 61% 79% Median
5 17% 18%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 40% 99.9%  
3 54% 60% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 0% 72%  
2 5% 72%  
3 67% 67% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations