Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Polsat News, 24–27 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.5% 27.6–31.5% 27.1–32.1% 26.7–32.6% 25.8–33.5%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 26.5% 24.6–28.4% 24.1–28.9% 23.7–29.4% 22.8–30.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 9.9% 8.7–11.3% 8.4–11.7% 8.1–12.0% 7.6–12.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 6.8–11.7%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.0–10.7% 6.5–11.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.4–7.5% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.5–8.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8% 3.3–6.1% 3.0–6.6%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–19 16–19 16–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 24% 99.6%  
17 21% 75%  
18 30% 54% Median
19 20% 24%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.9% 0.9%  
22 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.5% 100%  
13 6% 99.5%  
14 19% 94%  
15 35% 74% Median
16 29% 39%  
17 8% 9%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 56% 93% Median
6 31% 37%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 38% 99.9%  
5 52% 62% Median
6 9% 10%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 14% 99.4%  
5 64% 85% Median
6 20% 21%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 39% 99.0%  
4 58% 60% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 48%  
2 3% 48%  
3 45% 45%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0.3% 2%  
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 14% 99.4%  
5 64% 85% Median
6 20% 21%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 39% 99.0%  
4 58% 60% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0.3% 2%  
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations