Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 2–3 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 30.2% | 28.4–32.1% | 27.9–32.7% | 27.4–33.2% | 26.6–34.1% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 25.1% | 23.3–26.9% | 22.9–27.4% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.0–11.7% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.2–10.8% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.8–6.2% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 100% | |
| 17 | 29% | 96% | |
| 18 | 30% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 31% | 37% | |
| 20 | 6% | 7% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 13% | 98% | |
| 14 | 50% | 84% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 34% | |
| 16 | 18% | 20% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 30% | 97% | |
| 7 | 59% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 65% | 86% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 22% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 68% | 76% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 50% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 47% | 48% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 15% | |
| 2 | 3% | 15% | |
| 3 | 12% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 68% | 76% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 50% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 47% | 48% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IBRiS
- Commissioner(s): Rzeczpospolita
- Fieldwork period: 2–3 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 990
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.22%