Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 16–17 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.9% 28.0–31.9% 27.5–32.5% 27.1–33.0% 26.2–33.9%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 20.3% 18.7–22.1% 18.3–22.6% 17.9–23.1% 17.1–23.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 11.7% 10.5–13.2% 10.1–13.6% 9.8–14.0% 9.2–14.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.8–11.6%
Partia Mateusza Morawieckiego (*) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.4–6.9% 4.2–7.1% 3.8–7.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.4%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 16–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Partia Mateusza Morawieckiego (*) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 38% 97%  
18 17% 59% Median
19 20% 42%  
20 22% 22%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 30% 99.6%  
11 22% 70% Median
12 17% 48%  
13 29% 30%  
14 1.1% 1.3%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 21% 100%  
6 33% 79% Median
7 39% 46%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 33% 99.5%  
5 53% 67% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Partia Mateusza Morawieckiego (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Mateusza Morawieckiego (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 19% 99.9%  
4 71% 80% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 78% 95% Median
5 16% 17%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 66% 86% Median
4 19% 20%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 37%  
2 1.1% 37%  
3 36% 36%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 78% 95% Median
5 16% 17%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 66% 86% Median
4 19% 20%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations