Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 24–25 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.0% 28.1–32.0% 27.6–32.5% 27.1–33.0% 26.2–34.0%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 17.4% 15.9–19.1% 15.4–19.6% 15.1–20.0% 14.4–20.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 13.5% 12.1–15.0% 11.7–15.4% 11.4–15.8% 10.8–16.6%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.1–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.1–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.2%
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.5% 6.8–9.8% 6.6–10.2% 6.1–10.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.8–8.0% 4.4–8.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–19 16–20
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 10 9–10 9–11 8–11 8–11
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 7% 99.9%  
17 4% 93%  
18 67% 89% Median
19 21% 22%  
20 0.8% 1.1%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 27% 96%  
10 61% 70% Median
11 8% 9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 13% 98%  
8 80% 85% Median
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 51% 99.4% Median
5 43% 48%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 42% 99.2%  
5 55% 57% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Rozwój Plus (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rozwój Plus (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 42% 98%  
5 50% 57% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 51% 99.7% Median
4 43% 48%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0.8% 1.1%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 42% 99.2%  
5 55% 57% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 51% 99.7% Median
4 43% 48%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations