Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Polsat News, 29 July–2 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.9% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.5% 26.1–32.0% 25.2–33.0%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 18.5% 17.0–20.3% 16.5–20.8% 16.1–21.2% 15.4–22.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.8% 7.4–11.2% 6.9–11.8%
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0.0% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.2% 6.9–10.6% 6.4–11.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–10.0% 6.7–10.3% 6.2–11.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.2–8.5% 4.8–9.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.4–4.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 16–20 15–20 15–20
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Rozwój Plus (ECR) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 3% 100%  
16 4% 97%  
17 17% 93%  
18 47% 76% Median
19 23% 28%  
20 5% 5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 10% 99.5%  
10 36% 90%  
11 33% 54% Median
12 20% 21%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 23% 98%  
6 65% 75% Median
7 10% 10%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 8% 99.8%  
5 55% 91% Median
6 35% 36%  
7 1.2% 1.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Rozwój Plus (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rozwój Plus (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 62% 99.4% Median
5 35% 38%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 49% 94% Median
5 42% 44%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 35% 99.8%  
4 36% 64% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0.5% 16%  
3 15% 15%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 8% 99.8%  
5 55% 91% Median
6 35% 36%  
7 1.2% 1.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 35% 99.8%  
4 36% 64% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations