Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias, 3–8 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.5% 27.5–31.6% 26.9–32.2% 26.4–32.7% 25.5–33.8%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 27.6% 25.6–29.7% 25.1–30.3% 24.6–30.8% 23.7–31.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.5% 15.9–19.3% 15.4–19.8% 15.0–20.3% 14.3–21.2%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.8% 5.5–9.1% 5.1–9.8%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.0% 3.4–6.3% 3.0–6.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 13% 100%  
7 69% 87% Median
8 17% 18%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 46% 99.1%  
7 51% 53% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 81% 90% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 77% 100% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 13% 100%  
7 69% 87% Median
8 17% 18%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 81% 90% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 66% 91% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 65% 66% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations