Chega (PfE)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 15.6% | 13.0–18.2% | 12.4–18.9% | 11.9–19.5% | 10.9–20.7% |
| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
13.6% | 11.9–15.5% | 11.4–16.1% | 11.0–16.6% | 10.3–17.6% |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.8–17.3% | 12.2–18.0% |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
14.2% | 12.4–16.3% | 11.9–16.9% | 11.5–17.5% | 10.7–18.5% |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP-UCP Público and RTP |
17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 15.0–19.2% | 14.4–20.0% |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
16.2% | 14.1–18.7% | 13.5–19.4% | 13.0–20.1% | 12.1–21.3% |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
18.4% | 16.4–20.7% | 15.8–21.4% | 15.3–21.9% | 14.4–23.1% |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
16.5% | 14.7–18.6% | 14.2–19.2% | 13.7–19.7% | 12.9–20.7% |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
17.4% | 15.4–19.6% | 14.9–20.3% | 14.4–20.8% | 13.5–21.9% |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
17.3% | 15.5–19.4% | 14.9–20.0% | 14.5–20.5% | 13.6–21.6% |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
13.4% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.4–15.9% | 11.0–16.4% | 10.3–17.3% |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
17.5% | 15.3–20.1% | 14.6–20.9% | 14.1–21.5% | 13.1–22.8% |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
18.4% | 16.7–20.2% | 16.2–20.8% | 15.8–21.2% | 15.1–22.1% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
16.8% | 14.6–19.4% | 13.9–20.1% | 13.4–20.7% | 12.4–22.0% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
17.3% | 15.4–19.5% | 14.9–20.1% | 14.4–20.7% | 13.5–21.8% |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.0–19.3% | 14.6–19.8% | 13.8–20.7% |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
16.2% | 14.1–18.8% | 13.5–19.6% | 13.0–20.2% | 12.0–21.5% |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
16.2% | 14.4–18.3% | 13.9–18.8% | 13.5–19.4% | 12.7–20.4% |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
20.9% | 19.1–22.8% | 18.6–23.4% | 18.2–23.8% | 17.4–24.8% |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
18.0% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
14.1% | 12.4–16.0% | 11.9–16.6% | 11.5–17.0% | 10.8–18.0% |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
15.1% | 13.6–16.8% | 13.1–17.3% | 12.8–17.7% | 12.1–18.6% |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
14.7% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.5–17.3% | 12.1–17.8% | 11.4–18.8% |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
15.4% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.2–18.0% | 12.8–18.5% | 12.0–19.5% |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–16.0% | 11.9–16.4% | 11.3–17.1% |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
17.5% | 15.9–19.3% | 15.4–19.8% | 15.0–20.3% | 14.3–21.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Chega (PfE).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 4% | 98% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 10% | 94% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 15% | 84% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 18% | 69% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 16% | 34% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 11% | 18% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP-UCP Público and RTP |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
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| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
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| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Chega (PfE).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 52% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 43% | 45% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |