Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for RTP, 7–13 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 33.0% 31.1–35.0% 30.6–35.6% 30.1–36.1% 29.2–37.0%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 31.0% 29.2–33.0% 28.6–33.6% 28.2–34.0% 27.3–35.0%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.3–17.1%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 9% 100%  
8 69% 91% Median
9 22% 23%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 40% 99.4%  
8 57% 59% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.3% 100%  
3 85% 98.7% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 77% 100% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100% Last Result
1 63% 63% Median
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 8 0% 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 9% 100%  
8 69% 91% Median
9 22% 23%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.3% 100%  
3 85% 98.7% Median
4 13% 13%  
5 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 64% 68% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations