Opinion Poll by Intercampus for CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 19–26 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.7% 26.5–31.2% 25.8–31.9% 25.3–32.5% 24.2–33.7%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 25.9% 23.8–28.3% 23.1–29.0% 22.6–29.6% 21.6–30.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 15.4% 13.7–17.5% 13.2–18.0% 12.8–18.5% 12.0–19.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 9.9% 8.5–11.6% 8.1–12.1% 7.7–12.5% 7.1–13.4%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.2% 5.1–7.7% 4.8–8.1% 4.6–8.5% 4.1–9.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.0–7.0% 3.7–7.3% 3.3–8.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.4–5.4% 2.1–6.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.8% 1.5–4.0% 1.2–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 26% 99.7%  
7 64% 74% Median
8 10% 10%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 9% 100%  
6 70% 91% Median
7 21% 22%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 52% 99.6% Median
4 47% 47%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 89% 97% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 92% 99.7% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 95% 96% Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 38% 38%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 9% 100%  
6 70% 91% Median
7 21% 22%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 52% 99.6% Median
4 47% 47%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 89% 99.8% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 61% 98% Median
2 37% 37%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations