Opinion Poll by Intercampus for CMTV, 29 August–4 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 31.5% 29.1–34.0% 28.4–34.7% 27.9–35.3% 26.8–36.5%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 29.5% 27.2–31.9% 26.5–32.6% 26.0–33.2% 24.9–34.4%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 14.7% 13.0–16.7% 12.5–17.3% 12.1–17.8% 11.4–18.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.0–9.9% 6.6–10.3% 6.3–10.8% 5.8–11.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.3% 5.2–7.7% 4.9–8.2% 4.6–8.5% 4.1–9.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.7% 1.6–5.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.5–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 6–9 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 49% 97% Median
8 45% 48%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 17% 99.9%  
7 64% 83% Median
8 19% 19%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 72% 98% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 66% 67% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 92% 99.8% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 6–9 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 49% 97% Median
8 45% 48%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 72% 98% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 57% 99.9% Median
2 41% 43%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations