Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 30 September–5 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.0–34.2% 29.4–34.8% 28.9–35.4% 27.9–36.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.6% 26.6–30.7% 26.0–31.3% 25.5–31.8% 24.6–32.8%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 15.1% 13.6–16.8% 13.1–17.3% 12.8–17.7% 12.1–18.6%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0% 4.9–8.3% 4.4–8.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.7% 4.3–7.0% 4.1–7.3% 3.7–7.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 28% 99.7%  
8 66% 72% Median
9 6% 6%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 21% 99.9%  
7 70% 79% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 63% 99.7% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.0% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 21% 99.9%  
7 70% 79% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 63% 99.7% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 88% 99.2% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 33%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations