Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 4–10 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.6% 27.3–32.0% 26.6–32.7% 26.1–33.3% 25.0–34.5%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.3% 26.0–30.7% 25.4–31.4% 24.8–32.0% 23.8–33.2%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 14.1% 12.4–16.0% 11.9–16.6% 11.5–17.0% 10.8–18.0%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.5% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.5% 5.7–9.9% 5.2–10.7%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.9% 4.4–8.2% 3.9–9.0%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.6% 2.2–6.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 1.9–5.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2% 1.1–3.4% 0.9–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 16% 99.9%  
7 64% 84% Median
8 19% 20%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.7% 100%  
6 34% 99.3%  
7 57% 65% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 80% 95% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 65% 100% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 99.4% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 16% 99.9%  
7 64% 84% Median
8 19% 20%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 80% 95% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 50% 99.8% Median
2 48% 49%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations