Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP for Antena 1, Público and RTP, 17–23 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.2–35.9% 29.3–36.9%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.0% 27.2–30.8% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.8% 25.4–32.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 18.0% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 10% 100%  
8 76% 90% Median
9 13% 13%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 11% 100%  
7 80% 89% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 84% 98.6% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 11% 100%  
7 80% 89% Median
8 9% 9%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 84% 98.6% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 67% 70% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations