Opinion Poll by Aximage for Folha Nacional, 15–22 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.1% 26.2–30.2% 25.6–30.8% 25.1–31.4% 24.2–32.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 26.8% 24.8–28.8% 24.3–29.4% 23.8–29.9% 22.9–30.9%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 20.9% 19.1–22.8% 18.6–23.4% 18.2–23.8% 17.4–24.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.1–8.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.8–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 40% 99.7%  
7 57% 60% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 66% 96% Median
7 30% 30%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 21% 100%  
5 75% 79% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.7% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 42% 42%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 66% 96% Median
7 30% 30%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 21% 100%  
5 75% 79% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 52%  
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations