Opinion Poll by Intercampus for CMTV, 21–27 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 30.1% 27.8–32.6% 27.1–33.3% 26.6–33.9% 25.5–35.1%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 28.8% 26.5–31.2% 25.8–31.9% 25.3–32.5% 24.2–33.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 16.2% 14.4–18.3% 13.9–18.8% 13.5–19.4% 12.7–20.4%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 8.3% 7.0–9.9% 6.6–10.3% 6.3–10.7% 5.8–11.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.8% 4.7–7.2% 4.4–7.6% 4.2–8.0% 3.7–8.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.1–5.1% 1.8–5.7%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.1–5.1% 1.8–5.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–4.9% 1.7–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 10% 100%  
7 64% 90% Median
8 26% 26%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 21% 99.7%  
7 67% 78% Median
8 11% 12%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 38% 99.9%  
4 60% 61% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 36% 100%  
2 64% 64% Median
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 96% 98.8% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 10% 100%  
7 64% 90% Median
8 26% 26%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 38% 99.9%  
4 60% 61% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 72% 99.2% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 36%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations