Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 28 December 2024–5 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.0% 30.1–36.1% 29.3–37.0% 28.6–37.8% 27.2–39.3%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.0% 24.3–30.0% 23.5–30.8% 22.9–31.6% 21.6–33.0%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 16.2% 14.1–18.8% 13.5–19.6% 13.0–20.2% 12.0–21.5%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 5.8% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0% 3.9–8.5% 3.3–9.4%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.2% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.3% 2.7–6.7% 2.2–7.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.0% 2.5–6.4% 2.1–7.2%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8% 1.7–5.2% 1.4–5.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 37% 98%  
8 49% 61% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 11% 99.9%  
6 57% 89% Median
7 31% 33%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 44% 99.2%  
4 51% 55% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 90% 95% Median
2 5% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 31% 31%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 11% 99.9%  
6 57% 89% Median
7 31% 33%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 44% 99.2%  
4 51% 55% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 51% 86%  
2 35% 35% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations