Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 9–20 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.0% 31.0–35.2% 30.4–35.8% 29.9–36.4% 28.9–37.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 30.1% 28.0–32.2% 27.5–32.8% 27.0–33.3% 26.0–34.4%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.0% 15.4–18.8% 15.0–19.3% 14.6–19.8% 13.8–20.7%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 15% 100%  
8 69% 85% Median
9 16% 16%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 66% 95% Median
8 29% 29%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 12% 100%  
4 84% 88% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 60% 60% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 66% 95% Median
8 29% 29%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 12% 100%  
4 84% 88% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations