Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, 21–26 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.2% 25.9–30.7% 25.2–31.5% 24.6–32.1% 23.5–33.3%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 27.9% 25.5–30.4% 24.9–31.1% 24.3–31.7% 23.2–33.0%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.3% 15.4–19.5% 14.9–20.1% 14.4–20.7% 13.5–21.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.0% 5.8–8.6% 5.4–9.0% 5.1–9.4% 4.6–10.2%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.9% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.8% 4.2–8.2% 3.7–8.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.8–5.6% 2.6–5.9% 2.2–6.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.2–5.2% 1.9–5.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.2–5.2% 1.9–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 34% 99.1%  
7 58% 65% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.3% 100%  
6 39% 98.7%  
7 53% 59% Median
8 6% 6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 13% 100%  
4 74% 87% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 74% 100% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 93% 98.9% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 57% 57% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 31% 31%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.9% 100%  
6 34% 99.1%  
7 58% 65% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 13% 100%  
4 74% 87% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 65% 99.3% Median
2 33% 34%  
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 58% 73% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations