Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 21–26 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.0% 30.1–36.1% 29.3–37.0% 28.6–37.8% 27.2–39.3%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.2% 24.5–30.2% 23.8–31.1% 23.1–31.8% 21.9–33.3%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 16.8% 14.6–19.4% 13.9–20.1% 13.4–20.7% 12.4–22.0%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.2% 4.9–8.1% 4.6–8.6% 4.3–9.1% 3.7–10.0%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.8% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7% 2.3–6.1% 1.9–6.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4% 2.1–5.8% 1.7–6.6%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8% 1.7–5.2% 1.4–5.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6% 1.0–3.9% 0.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.5% 100%  
7 27% 98.5%  
8 55% 72% Median
9 16% 16%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 50% 94% Median
7 40% 44%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 31% 99.8%  
4 61% 69% Median
5 7% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 86% 98.8% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 48% 48%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 50% 94% Median
7 40% 44%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 31% 99.8%  
4 61% 69% Median
5 7% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 44% 50%  
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 49% 49%  
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations