Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 23–28 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 29.2% 27.3–31.4% 26.7–32.0% 26.2–32.5% 25.3–33.5%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.1% 26.2–30.2% 25.6–30.8% 25.1–31.4% 24.2–32.4%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 18.4% 16.7–20.2% 16.2–20.8% 15.8–21.2% 15.1–22.1%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.5–7.1% 4.2–7.5% 3.8–8.1%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 3.0–5.7% 2.6–6.3%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.3% 1.7–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 17% 99.9%  
7 72% 83% Median
8 12% 12%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 34% 99.5%  
7 60% 65% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 75% 97% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.9% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 40%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 28% 28%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 34% 99.5%  
7 60% 65% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 75% 97% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 55%  
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 66% 69% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations