Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 23–27 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 35.5% 32.5–38.7% 31.7–39.5% 31.0–40.3% 29.6–41.8%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 27.2% 24.5–30.2% 23.8–31.1% 23.1–31.8% 21.9–33.3%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.5% 15.3–20.1% 14.6–20.9% 14.1–21.5% 13.1–22.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2% 3.3–7.6% 2.8–8.5%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.8% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9% 3.1–7.3% 2.6–8.2%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4% 2.1–5.8% 1.7–6.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–10 7–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 9% 99.9%  
8 51% 91% Median
9 36% 40%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 54% 92% Median
7 36% 39%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 20% 99.9%  
4 69% 80% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 84% 85% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 80% 81% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 34% 34%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 54% 92% Median
7 36% 39%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 20% 99.9%  
4 69% 80% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 34% 35%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 80% 81% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations