Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI, 3–6 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 33.4% 31.1–35.9% 30.4–36.6% 29.8–37.2% 28.7–38.4%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.8% 26.6–31.2% 25.9–31.9% 25.4–32.5% 24.3–33.7%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 13.4% 11.8–15.3% 11.4–15.9% 11.0–16.4% 10.3–17.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.7% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.6% 5.0–9.0% 4.5–9.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 2.0–4.7% 1.7–5.3%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.9% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.5% 1.5–5.1%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.7% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.3% 1.4–4.9%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.3% 0.9–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 10% 99.9%  
8 65% 90% Median
9 24% 25%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 18% 99.9%  
7 67% 82% Median
8 15% 15%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 81% 93% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 18% 99.9%  
7 67% 82% Median
8 15% 15%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 81% 93% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 26%  
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations