Opinion Poll by Aximage for Diário de Notícias, 6–8 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 30.8% 28.4–33.3% 27.8–34.0% 27.2–34.6% 26.1–35.8%
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 25.8% 23.6–28.2% 23.0–28.9% 22.5–29.4% 21.4–30.6%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 17.3% 15.5–19.4% 14.9–20.0% 14.5–20.5% 13.6–21.6%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.1–8.9% 5.8–9.3% 5.5–9.7% 5.0–10.5%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–6.9%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.1% 1.2–4.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.6% 1.4–3.9% 1.1–4.4%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 8% 100%  
7 62% 92% Median
8 29% 30%  
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 14% 99.9%  
6 71% 86% Median
7 15% 16%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 17% 100%  
4 76% 83% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 71% 71% Median
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 8% 100%  
7 62% 92% Median
8 29% 30%  
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 17% 100%  
4 76% 83% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 70% 72% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations