Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 12–17 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 37.6% 34.7–40.7% 33.9–41.6% 33.2–42.4% 31.8–43.8%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 28.0% 25.3–30.9% 24.6–31.7% 23.9–32.5% 22.7–33.9%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 16.2% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.4% 13.0–20.1% 12.1–21.3%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 7.8% 6.3–9.7% 5.9–10.2% 5.6–10.7% 5.0–11.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.0% 0.9–4.6%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4% 1.0–3.7% 0.7–4.3%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1% 0.8–3.4% 0.6–4.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.7% 0.1–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.4% 100%  
8 29% 98.6%  
9 55% 70% Median
10 14% 15%  
11 0.6% 0.6% Majority
12 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 49% 96% Median
7 43% 47%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 44% 99.4%  
4 53% 55% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–8 5–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Partido Socialista (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 49% 96% Median
7 43% 47%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 44% 99.4%  
4 53% 55% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) – Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations